What makes a Verifact market?
We trade on disputed facts, not predictions.
Prediction markets ask:
“What will happen?”
Verifact Markets ask:
“What actually happened?”
Each market centers on a specific factual statement about something that has already happened, but people genuinely disagree about what is true.
For example:
“COVID-19 originated in a laboratory in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”
The market rules define exactly what the statement means. That matters because real-world disputes are messy. People can sound like they disagree while actually answering different questions.
An ideal Verifact market turns that disagreement into one clear factual claim that has good arguments for True and False, and that can ultimately be tested against evidence.
How does evidence work?
Start with the arguments on each side.
Disputed facts are rarely difficult because there is no information. Usually, there is too much of it.
Verifact helps organize that complexity.
For each market, users can see key arguments supporting True and False, along with the sources and evidence behind those arguments.
The goal is to make the strongest information on both sides easier to find, understand, and investigate for yourself.
You can contribute too.
If you find relevant evidence that Verifact has not surfaced, you can submit it.
A submission does not automatically become part of the resolution process. Verifact evaluates whether it is relevant, verifiable, attributable, and useful to understanding the factual question.
How does trading work?
Your view becomes a position.
Every Verifact market has two sides: True and False.
If you believe the statement is true, buy True.
If you believe it is false, buy False.
The price tells you what it currently costs to take that position.
For example, if True is trading at $0.62, you can buy a True contract for $0.62.
If the market eventually resolves True, that contract pays $1.
If it resolves False, it pays $0.
You don't have to wait for resolution.
Prices can move as people trade, new evidence emerges, and participants change their views.
If you bought True at $0.62 and the market later moves to $0.75, you can sell your position before the market resolves.
Trading also creates information.
Trading does more than create an opportunity to make or lose money. When people have real financial incentives to research deeply and act on what they believe, their trading activity can reveal information that becomes useful to the market itself.
How does Verifact decide?
Our incentives are aligned and straightforward: our business only works if users trust the rigor and consistency of our decisions.
Credibility must be earned with every market we resolve.
Finding the truth is an information problem at an enormous scale.
Verifact analyzes evidence from many sources, including evidence discovered by our systems and evidence submitted by users, and assesses how strongly the overall body of information supports each side.
Using evidence and market signals to cut through the noise
Verifact combines its analysis of the evidence with relevant signals from the market to assess our confidence level in True or False.
A market resolves only when Verifact reaches a high level of confidence in True or False (e.g., > 90%).
Verifact makes the final resolution determination in accordance with its published Market Rules, which include the required level of confidence to resolve each market.
What happens if Verifact does not reach that level of confidence?
We will not force a resolution. Users still get paid.
Some disputed facts may never produce enough information for Verifact to reach the confidence required to resolve True or False. Reaching that equilibrium is ok and expected sometimes.
If trading activity fades and no new evidence emerges after a period of time, Verifact may expire the market.
If a market expires, the factual question remains unresolved, but your money does not remain locked in the market. Instead of paying $1 to the winning side and $0 to the losing side, positions settle using a trusted expiration price calculated from recent qualifying trades.
For example, if the trusted price at expiration for True is $0.62 and False is $0.38
- True contracts → $0.62 each
- False contracts → $0.38 each
This allows participants to get their funds back based on where the market was pricing the dispute.
Got questions?
Email us: support@verifact.markets
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